Turnover Inducing Tackles – Thin Air Research

The tackle is one of the most context lacking statistics in football. The act of the tackle itself is of course discrete: one or two defensive players wrestling an offensive player to the ground. But what each tackle means to the goal of the defense varies widely, and cannot be described meaningfully by a simple tally of how many tackles a player has made, as is common on traditional NFL stat views. This article will try to add some context to the tackle.

Most tackles have a neutral outcome, at least at the time of the tackle. Take a tackle made after a three yard gain on 1st and 10: it’s unknowable by itself if that tackle will contribute to a good result for the defense. Some tackles come from a bad outcome, such as one that happened after a 40 yard gain by the offense. (To be clear, this result might not be the tackler’s fault: a teammate may have blown a coverage or failed to set an edge, and his tackle saved the play from being worse.)

And some tackles are always good. The most glorious of these is the sack, when the most important player in the quarterback is taken down behind the line of scrimmage. Tackling any ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage has the same effect as a sack, thus the tackle for loss has also been recognized as an important defensive stat. Tackles that force a fumble are also very important, as it gives the defense the ability to seize a turnover.

However, these tackles, while good, by themselves do not guarantee achieving the defense’s goal on every drive–to force the offense to give up possession. A sack or tackle for loss could be negated by a long conversion on the next play. And while forcing fumbles is always the sign of a strong defense, fumble recoveries are notorious for being the most luck riddled aspect of football, and sometimes the offense gets that recovery luck and keeps its drive alive.

But there also tackles missed by these statistics that always achieve the ultimate goal of the defense. Stopping any 4th down conversion, of course, results in a turnover on downs–whether it’s a tackle for loss on 4th and 1, or a 19 yard gain on 4th and 20. The offense yielding the ball to the defense also occurs on a punt after a failed 3rd down conversion, and while significant yardage is yielded on a punt, so too would a play when a quarterback is intercepted on a very deep pass, and interceptions are always scored as a win for the defense, and as a significant stat for the interceptor.

To my knowledge, these tackles have been ignored by traditional statistics. Therefore, I’m making an effort to create a new statistic that captures these important tackles. They are turnover inducing tackles. (Yes, I am well aware of the acronym I have created in the process.) And thanks to the great work by nflverse in crunching play-by-play data with extensive identification of what happened on each play, it’s possible to put this concept to numbers.

What is a turnover inducing tackle?

A player earns a turnover inducing tackle (1 if the tackle is solo, 0.5 if the tackle is shared) if his tackle results in any of the following four outcomes:

A safety
A failed 4th down conversion
A failed 3rd down conversion that does not result in a made field goal
A forced fumble that is recovered by the defense

A brief note is needed on the third and fourth criteria: while failed 3rd down conversions and forced fumbles are always good in the proximate for the defense, the turnover inducing tackle practices consequentialism: if the offense scores a field goal or recovers a fumble, the ultimate defensive goal of a turnover was not achieved.

Turnover inducing tackles also overlap with other stats, something that is common. A player who strips a quarterback behind the line of scrimmage with his side recovering the ball could earn a sack, a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, and a turnover inducing tackle all in one play.

Comparing turnover inducing tackles to all tackles

For an example of how turnover inducing tackles can be more insightful, let’s take a look at the leaders in both statistics in the 2012 NFL regular season.

2012 Top 20 players in total tackles

#	Player	Pos.	Solo	Assist	Total
1	Luke Kuechly	LB	103	61	164
2	Chad Greenway	LB	98	50	148
2	NaVorro Bowman	LB	96	52	148
4	Jerod Mayo	LB	88	59	147
5	Jerrell Freeman	LB	90	55	145
6	James Laurinaitis	LB	117	25	142
7	Bobby Wagner	LB	87	53	140
8	London Fletcher	LB	78	61	139
8	Paul Posluszny	LB	106	33	139
8	Lavonte David	LB	112	27	139
11	Karlos Dansby	LB	101	33	134
11	Daryl Washington	LB	108	26	134
13	Russell Allen	LB	107	24	131
14	Perry Riley Jr.	LB	73	56	129
15	Vontaze Burfict	LB	73	54	127
16	Derrick Johnson	LB	110	15	125
17	David Harris	LB	79	44	123
17	Curtis Lofton	LB	82	41	123
17	Morgan Burnett	S	88	35	123
20	Rey Maualuga	LB	62	60	122

As you’re likely all aware, total tackle leaders are dominated by off ball linebackers, with the occasional box safety making an appearance. There are some stars on this list–Luke Kuechly and Bobby Wagner are highly likely Hall of Famers, and they made this list in their rookie seasons. Plenty of others were Pro Bowlers, assisted by having inside linebacker carved out as a position official to that award. But there are also plenty of players that, while they were solid starters this season (you have to be at least a solid starter to earn this many tackles) were nothing more that such, and a few rarely saw seasons better than they did in 2012.

Now, let’s look at turnover inducing tackles in this season.

2012 players with double digit turnover inducing tackles

#	Player	Pos.	TIT	Tackle Rank
1	Von Miller	EDGE	16	124
2	Ronde Barber	CB	14.5	70
3	Julius Peppers	EDGE	14	303
3	Daryl Washington	LB	14	11
5	Dannell Ellerbe	LB	12.5	70
5	Stephen Tulloch	LB	12.5	29
5	Josh Wilson	CB	12.5	74
8	Cameron Wake	EDGE	12	199
8	James Laurinaitis	LB	12	6
10	Charles Johnson	EDGE	11.5	279
11	Cortland Finnegan	CB	11	43
11	DeMeco Ryans	LB	11	113
11	Muhammad Wilkerson	IDL	11	69
14	Wesley Woodyard	LB	10.5	24
14	Thomas Davis	LB	10.5	34
16	Justin Durant	LB	10	39
16	John Abraham	EDGE	10	348
16	Anthony Spencer	EDGE	10	61
16	Jabaal Sheard	EDGE	10	185

You’ll immediately see position diversity in this list. Edge rushers will show up among turnover inducing tackle leaders about as commonly as linebackers do, and the leading edge rushers are often among the best. Here, Von Miller and Julius Peppers are Hall of Fame locks, while Cameron Wake and John Abraham were regular disruptors off the edge with very long careers. Defensive backs are also more common, headlined here by Hall of Famer Ronde Barber, while interior defensive linemen are rarer but those capable of regularly disrupting the backfield will show up, as Muhammad Wilkerson does here, and we’ll see other superstars at that position like JJ Watt (who just misses double digits in 2012 with 9) and Aaron Donald show up near the top in other seasons.

Only two top 20 leaders in total tackles in 2012 make this list (James Laurinaitis and Daryl Washington). Among the other linebackers that make this list, we may be able to detect some players that, even if they weren’t stars, quietly had excellent play for at least this season.

Long term leaders in turnover inducing tackles

As of the publishing of this article, Thin Air Research’s main page on turnover inducing tackles spans from 2011, the first season of a groundbreaking collective bargaining agreement, to 2022. Here are the top twelve players in turnover inducing tackles that entered the league in 2011 or later:

#	Player	Pos.	TIT
1	Lavonte David	LB	124
2	Von Miller	EDGE	96.5
3	Bobby Wagner	LB	86.5
4	J.J. Watt	IDL	77.5
5	Aaron Donald	IDL	76
6	Khalil Mack	EDGE	75.5
7	Justin Houston	EDGE	75
8	Chandler Jones	EDGE	70
9	Eric Kendricks	LB	69.5
10	Cameron Jordan	EDGE	68.5
11	Luke Kuechly	LB	66.5
12	Demario Davis	LB	66

I was quite surprised as to who was far and away the top player among players in this time span. The next four players in Miller, Wagner, Watt, and Donald are all players that should have little trouble in becoming Hall of Famers. Yet hardly anyone, perhaps long time Bucs observers being the exception, would even consider Lavonte David on the same level. Yet when I dug into traditional stats for David compared to Wagner (3rd on this list) and Kuechly (11th), all off ball linebackers drafted in 2012, he is very much on par with both of them:

Statistic	Lavonte David	Bobby Wagner	Luke Kuechly
Sacks	29	29.5	12.5
Tackles For Loss	143	78	75
Interceptions	12	13	18
Passes Defensed	59	65	66
Forced Fumbles	27	6	7
Turnover Inducing Tackles	124	66.5	68.5
Total Negative Plays	394	278	247

It’s also instructive to look at the top earners of turnover inducing tackles over one season. The average and median numbers from 2011-2022 are both within 14 to 15, so I’ll post all players who got at least 14.5 turnover inducing tackles in a season:

#	Player	Pos.	Season	TIT
1	NaVorro Bowman	LB	2013	21
2	Lavonte David	LB	2013	17
3	Robert Mathis	EDGE	2013	16.5
3	Maxx Crosby	EDGE	2022	16.5
5	Von Miller	EDGE	2012	16
5	Fred Warner	LB	2022	16
7	Roquan Smith	LB	2020	15.5
7	Myles Garrett	EDGE	2022	15.5
9	Ronde Barber	CB	2012	14.5
9	Lawrence Timmons	LB	2014	14.5
9	Lavonte David	LB	2014	14.5
9	Ryan Shazier	LB	2017	14.5
9	Jamal Adams	S	2020	14.5
9	Lavonte David	LB	2022	14.5

David is only player that shows up on this list more than once, and he’s on here three times. Suffice to say, he is a player that I should have given more respect and attention than I did before. If I had to guess why, it would be that the NFL, wrongly stuck to antiquated positions on defense, classifies David as an outside linebacker despite playing off ball, and as such he has had to compete with edge rushers for postseason honors like the Pro Bowl, of which he only has one–in 2015, in which he of course led the league in turnover induced tackles, with “only” 12.5. And even if the NFL did the right thing with using the interior defensive line, edge rusher, and off ball linebacker classifications, David would have to compete with fellow Class of 2012 linebackers in Wagner and Kuechly for postseason honors at that position.

And my hope is that turnover inducing tackles can add one more tool among many to better recognize great football players, and when they did great things. As one more example to conclude, among players who entered the league in 2011 or later, the leading defensive back in turnover inducing tackles is another player that at least started off unheralded: Chris Harris Jr., a key member of the No Fly Zone of the Broncos in the decade of the 2010s. This play of his here in a high stakes playoff game is a leading example of a turnover inducing tackle that was neither a sack nor an interception nor a forced fumble nor a pass defensed–but it still created a critical turnover, the ultimate goal of the defense.